Policy

The Challenge

Fifteen EU countries have substantial coastlines that will be affected by global sea-level rise. Within these coastal regions

*        economic assets within 500 metres of the sea have an estimated value between €500 and €1,000 billion;

*        47,500 km2 of sites within 500m of the coastline are identified as having high ecological value;

*         the population has more than doubled to 70 million people – currently 14% of the entire EU population.

In many of these coastal areas, future sea-level rise will increase rates of coastal erosion, accelerate the destruction of natural sea defences, and increase the risk of coastal flooding. Developing policies to protect our coastlines, and reduce the impact on lives and livelihoods of EU citizens demand the best projections of sea-level rise available.

Project Objectives

Ice2sea is a collaborative research programme involving 24 institutional partners. Ice2sea is specifically focussed on the contribution to sea-level rise that will arise from loss of continental glaciers and ice sheets and which give rise to the largest part of the uncertainty in the projections. Sea levels will also rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans – however studying this is beyond the scope of this project – ice2sea only studies contributions from glaciers and ice sheets.

The ice2sea programme receives funding from the European Commission and from the many national agencies funding the institutional partners.

The programme will run for four years, (2009-2013) with a schedule designed to provide input to the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of climate change and its impacts.

 

Methodology

The 24 project partners include universities, research institutes, and commercial companies, from 13 European countries. The various aspect of science research, management and delivery, are undertaken through six interrelated work packages:

 

*        W1 – Programme management

*        W2 – Key glacial processes

*        W3 – Model foundation and validation

*        W4 – Projection of climate forcing

*        W5 – Projection of glacial change

*        W6 – Synthesis and dissemination

 

Expected Results

Ice2sea has twin goals of improving the science behind sea-level prediction from glaciers and ice sheets, and of providing new sea-level projections based on the most up-to-date climate projections. These goals will be realised through:

*        targeted studies of key processes in mountain glaciers, ice caps, and in the polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica);

*        improved satellite determinations of current changes in continental ice mass;

*        development of more reliable techniques for predicting the response of ice-sheets and glaciers to environmental change;

*        delivery of comprehensive projections of the contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise over the next 200 years.

 

We will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, and include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty.